Policy Expert Takes Stock of Global Trends Over the Next Five Years

Here are Peterson’s thoughts on each of the discussed trends:

Biodiversity – Environmental loss carries economic costs. A World Bank report cited by Kearney suggests that degrading ecosystems could trigger a downward spiral of roughly $2.7 trillion in annual global output by the decade's end. Peterson points to negligence and inaction toward biodiversity as contributors to current environmental conditions. That must change moving forward, he said. “We've just put together a major treaty on protecting biodiversity, but we don't see the ratification by national governments that we'd like to see, including the big one close to here. That will have a big effect ultimately on how rapidly we can address the program.”

Industrial Policy – It’s a free-for-all out there. According to the Kearney report, post-pandemic industrial policies address challenges like the “growing reliance on critical resources, the need for clean energy,” and the development of advanced technologies such as AI. The ripple effect of these policies could result in geopolitical tension, with countries rethinking their economic relationships to localize manufacturing and protect their industries in the name of securing sustainable economic growth. “I think that this industry policy is likely to intensify in the years ahead,” said Peterson. “It will become more and more difficult for us to continence international trade and investment.”

Rapid Transit – Time to get moving…quickly. Kearney is keeping its eyes on rapid transit over the next five years, especially as the core car fleet transforms from fossil fuels to electricity. It’ll be examining the impact of increasing mobility efficiency. “Flying cars, hyperloops and other innovative rapid transit systems, we believe, are likely to take on new momentum in the years ahead,” he said.

E-waste – Trash-to-treasure opportunities. There are over 53.6 million metric tons of discarded electrical equipment—phones, computers and TVs—in the world today. That’s equivalent to roughly 5,300 Eiffel towers, as noted by Kearney, and e-waste generation could grow to approximately 74.7 metric tons over the next six years. Properly discarding these products can help reduce exposure to toxic substances detrimental to human health. There is also massive potential for economic returns and manufacturing savings from recycling. “This is a very significant challenge, but by the same token, it’s a great opportunity,” said Peterson. “We think there is somewhere north of $60 billion involved in dealing with e-waste. It will be a critical element in the future.”

Digital Twins – A valuable copy. Digital twins are precisely what one would expect based on their name—digital representations of products, infrastructure or processes used for simulations and testing. The advancement of artificial intelligence and computational capability has helped extend the technology’s application to supply chain management, manufacturing, weather forecasting and diagnosing diseases. However, increased use of digital twins may also require greater cybersecurity and data management measures. “Think of how you deal with your day here at the Smith School and create a twin that you can use to stress test,” said Peterson. “On the one hand, you can work the bugs out of all kinds of things, but you can imagine on the other that they carry significant risk.”

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